Remember early last season when Dallas Mavericks owner Mark Cuban made that prediction? His thinking behind that line was that there were too many free agents and too few teams with cap space -- and you could also argue that there's too much talent one year away from freedom, as John Hollinger pointed out in his column late last week.
Well, Cuban is going to turn out to be both right and wrong on this one.
There are a few teams (Milwaukee, Charlotte, Memphis, Orlando, Atlanta) with significant cap space, and there are a bevy of teams able to offer the midlevel exception when the new salary cap is set July 12.
There is an epic draft today, and there is a feverish trade market bubbling beneath the surface, with more superstars being shopped or asking out than we've seen in recent memory. Once a few of those deals go down, the cap ramifications will alter the free-agent market.
There will be somebody who gets vastly overpaid (see Ben Wallace last summer, Larry Hughes the summer before that), and there will be somebody who misjudges his worth as it relates to the market and costs himself millions and millions of dollars (see Bonzi Wells, summer of '06).
With that in mind, here is our pre-draft ranking of the Top 25 Free Agents for the summer of 2007. (An updated version is coming over the weekend.)
1. Rashard Lewis, SuperSonics
He switched agents during the season, going from Kevin Poston to Tony Dutt in an effort to maximize his earnings. Lewis has already properly filed the paperwork to opt out of his contract, foregoing salaries of $10.1 million in '07-08 and $10.9 million in '08-09.
He can get major, major money from Orlando if the Magic renounce Darko Milicic (which is unlikely), but otherwise his best hope for a contract with a major starting salary -- a max deal would start above $18 million -- would be through a sign-and-trade. This will be a major skills test for both Dutt and 30-year-old Sonics general manager Sam Presti, both of whom must first wait until the draft is over to make a proper assessment of the correct starting point.
Sign-and-trade offers could come from New York, Cleveland, Miami, Orlando and Portland.
2. Chauncey Billups, Pistons
It was only a few months ago that the Detroit media was reporting that Billups would get a max contract from the Pistons for all of his years of faithful service. But Billups' value took a hit when he struggled in the Eastern Conference finals against Cleveland, and his only hope of leveraging a new deal starting somewhere north of $12 million per year would be through a sign-and-trade.
Agent Andy Miller will try to find such a deal, but the consensus around the league is that Billups staying in Detroit is a virtual lock.
3. Gerald Wallace, Bobcats
If you want to see graphic evidence of a guy establishing his value, go back and look at the tapes of the Bobcats' final 45 games, when Wallace averaged 21.6 points with 14 double-doubles.
Wallace opted out of a contract that would have paid him $6.05 million next season, and he'd command double that if there were a more open market this summer. Michael Jordan says he wants to keep him in Charlotte, but we'll have to wait and see how open owner Bob Johnson's wallet is going to be.
4. Vince Carter, Nets
He's going to opt out of his final season, forsaking $16.36 million, but he'll likely get a new deal from New Jersey for at least three years, with a starting salary lower than $16 million for next season.
That would give the Nets a little more flexibility under the luxury tax this summer, and it would take care of Carter long-term.
5. Mo Williams, Bucks
If, as everyone believes, Billups is going to return to the Pistons, then Young Mr. Mo will be the best free agent point guard out there during a summer when several teams, including Miami, Memphis and the Los Angeles Lakers, will be looking to address playmaker needs.
If Williams gets an offer that is more than the Bucks are willing to pay, it'll free up money for Milwaukee to spend elsewhere.
6. Anderson Varejao, Cavaliers
Yes, he's a restricted free agent, but with the Cavs right up against the luxury tax, it'll cost them double to keep him. In other words, if the Bucks, for instance, signed him to an offer sheet with a starting salary of $10 million, it would cost Cleveland $20 million in real dollars to match.
7. Darko Milicic, Magic
His cap hold as of July 1 is $15.6 million, which eats up all of Orlando's space. If they sign him at a starting salary of $9 million, they'll still have enough space left to offer an additional free agent more than midlevel money.
If the Magic want to go hard after Lewis, they could work out a sign-and-trade with Seattle, or simply renounce Darko -- the latter option would squeeze the 22-year-old, 7-footer financially.
8. Grant Hill, Magic
All indications point to him returning to Detroit if Joe Dumars is able to clear Lindsey Hunter, Ronald Dupree and Flip Murray off his cap. If that fails to happen, expect Toronto and/possibly San Antonio to make a push.
9. Steve Blake, Nuggets
If you don't think a half season of steady play will lead to millions in free-agent riches, look back on the cases of Marcus Banks and Speedy Claxton. Blake had nine games with double-figure assists after being dealt from the Bucks to the Nuggets at midseason. He would seem a perfect fit for Memphis or the Lakers. The Blazers are also interested.
10. Andray Blatche, Wizards
If we're judging on youth and upside alone, he's probably in the top tier. He may merit a full midlevel offer sheet, and then it would be a question of whether the Wizards would match (I believe they would in an eyeblink), and how that would impact their decisions on DeShawn Stevenson and Jarvis Hayes.
11. Andres Nocioni, Bulls
His best opportunity to get more than the midlevel would be through a sign-and-trade, though his value was hurt by his poor playoff performance against Detroit. If he signs for the MLE elsewhere, count on the Bulls matching.
12. Jason Kapono, Heat
Miami is desperately trying to swing deals, and this is one of the most tradable assets they have (Jason Williams is borderline untradable, and Antoine Walker is completely untradable.) Look for something of the sign-and-trade variety here.
13. Antonio McDyess, Pistons
The word Insider is hearing from Detroit is that McDyess is a lock to get an extension for 2008-09, keeping him from opting out of his $6.4 million salary for next season. Whether Billups stays will be a factor.
14. Jerry Stackhouse, Mavericks
He made $9.3 million last season, and he wants to stay in Dallas. The Mavericks want him back, too, but they're bidding against themselves, which will impact if and how much of a pay cut Stack will take.
15. Luke Walton, LakersSome of the trade options the Lakers are exploring to placate Kobe Bryant include sign-and-trade deals for Walton. When we know more about Kobe's future and whether he stays in L.A., we'll know better how the Lakers can best use Walton -- keeping him or sign-and-trading him -- in the immediate future.
16. Theo Papaloukas, CSKA Moscow
The 6-foot-7 guard has drawn interest from several NBA teams, including the Heat, Grizzlies and the Clippers, and says he wants to give the NBA a shot, but it would take a full midlevel offer to trump what he's making tax-free in Russia. He has a 400,000 euro buyout with CSKA that must be executed by July 15.
17. Mikki Moore, Nets
He said before the playoffs that he'd give New Jersey a hometown discount, but then increased his value substantially in the playoffs, possibly pricing himself out of the Nets' plans. In a market short on unrestricted free-agent centers, Moore could be able to snag a two- or three-year deal for a portion of a team's midlevel exception.
18. Sasha Pavlovic, Cavaliers
He's in a similar situation to Varejao, in that the Cavs would have to pay double if they match any offer he receives. Pavlovic raised his stock substantially with his defensive effort in the playoffs against Vince Carter, Richard Hamilton and Manu Ginobili.
19. Mickael Pietrus, Warriors
A Raptors source told me there was very little chance of Toronto making a move for the French forward, despite reports to the contrary last weekend. Pietrus recently switched agents, leaving Lon Babby for William McCandless.
20. Desmond Mason, Hornets
It's way down here on the list where we find the best candidates for getting squeezed financially. Mason is one player who should expect a hefty pay cut after making $8.3 million last season.
21. Earl Boykins, Bucks
Opted out of a guaranteed $3 million to go after one last big contract. Enough teams are looking for point guards for him to do better financially than Milwaukee teammate Ruben Patterson, who made $6.8 million last year and will be hard-pressed to find anywhere near that much elsewhere.
22. Matt Barnes, Warriors
Wants to stay in Golden State, which influenced his recent decision to hire agent Dan Fegan, who also represents fellow Warriors Jason Richardson and Stephen Jackson.
23. DeShawn Stevenson, Wizards
Still trying to make up for his $9 million mistake last summer when he turned that much down from Orlando and then signed for the minimum in Washington.
24. Fabricio Oberto, Spurs
He declined his third-year option late Sunday night, no doubt thinking he'll be able to get some long-term security -- and perhaps a boost from the $2.5 million he was due to make from San Antonio. He gets the coveted final international player slot, way down here at No. 24, over Portland's Ime Udoka.
25. Matt Carroll, Bobcats
After a vagabond career that included a stop in the D-League, Carroll is seeking some long-term security. No, he cannot defend, but he is a tough competitor and an above-average shooter. In the long run, he's worth more than the guys he edged out for No. 25, Morris Peterson, Chris Webber, Corliss Williamson, James Posey and Jamaal Magloire.
The Orlando Magic might have the inside track on their rumored #1 target in free agency.
Rashard Lewis' agent Tony Dutt says "There is no better fit than Orlando" for his client.
Free agents were allowed to start talking to teams Sunday morning at midnight but will not be able to sign with any team until July 11.
The Magic are likely to have anywhere from $13 to $16 million in capspace to sign a scorer. Much depends on how contract talks go with their restricted free agent forward Darko Milicic.
The most likely scenario for the Magic to land Lewis would be working out a sign and trade deal with Seattle since the Magic also want to re-sign Milicic which will eat into their capspace.
If Magic General Manager Otis Smith can make it work, Orlando might just be Rashard Lewis' new destination.
"Orlando is a good situation. It's a fit that could work," Dutt said. "If the parameters are there, they can make it work.
"It's very intriguing to Rashard."
Otissssssssssssssssssssss, show some courtesy Otis.
__________________ While tru lifes fist and cam was Muah Muah... Kissing/ I was cooking a 1000 grams in my Kitchen/
While Jim was getting Jumped in front of his Boo...
i was shining my nine you know how I Do/
Cam gotta fully swollen lip...a fully swollen lip
There was some immediate evidence to suggest that Chauncey Billups re-signing in Detroit is the lock everyone says it is: Milwaukee did not rush to register interest in Billups in the early hours of Sunday morning.
The Bucks are the one team with salary-cap room (if they renounced the rights to Mo Williams and Ruben Patterson) that was thought for much of the season to have a shot at signing Billups away from the Pistons.
But the Bucks' priority -- besides convincing Chinese draftee Yi Jianlian that he's going to absolutely love Wisconsin in the winter when he finds out he can start as a rookie -- is getting Williams re-signed. Those are the two things they're working on this weekend.
The Chicago Bulls, remember, put an all-out rush on Ben Wallace when free agency commenced a year ago to lure the face (and hair) of the Pistons' franchise out of Motown. It's looking unlikely that Wallace's heir to that mantle is going to be courted with a similar fervor by any team outside of Detroit.
Phoenix and San Antonio are offering only the veteran minimum salary for next season to Grant Hill: $1.2 million, with nearly $450,000 of that amount paid by the league office from a fund for veterans.
Detroit, Toronto and Orlando will be offering the 35-year-old much more.
Yet one source insisted early Sunday that he's already convinced that the injury-tortured Hill, having just completed a $93 million deal with Magic, is "going to Phoenix for sure."
That would be welcome news in the desert, since the Suns are desperate for savvy veterans to improve the team's overall IQ and since Hill is the only free agent Phoenix is looking to add to its hefty payroll.
The early indications, though, suggest Hill does want to consider all his options and won't rush into a commitment.
Sam Presti, Seattle's new general manager, could be found in Houston on Saturday night, waiting for the start of free agency and the chance to meet directly with Rashard Lewis.
A week ago, Orlando seemed to be an overwhelming favorite to land Lewis. Now? After the drafting of Kevin Durant and the trade that sent Ray Allen to Boston, there are signals that Seattle wants to keep Lewis ... although that might be a message intended to preserve maximum trade value for its rangy forward.
Says one interested suitor, clearly hoping Lewis winds up in a sign-and-trade deal instead: "Rashard wants to win now or he wants max dollars."
The Mavericks' No. 1 target in free agency? Folks in Dallas might have been expecting Mavs killer Matt Barnes, but I'm told it's actually Charlotte's Gerald Wallace. ...
Surely you haven't forgotten the drill: Teams and free agents can reach verbal agreements at any time in the next 10 days, but new contracts can't actually be signed before July 11 while the league finishes determining the salary-cap figure for next season.
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[NBA] 2007 Free Agency Thread
