Celts, Knicks taking big risks in Allen, Randolph deals
It's that classic moment in the shelf life of an NBA executive: the desperation trade. That's the trade GMs make when they feel like they have one final shot at keeping their job, so to heck with the future. The thought process is to just take on any veteran stars the guy can get and worry about the cap later -- if the trade doesn't work it will be somebody else's problem anyway, because he's guaranteed to be fired.
Last night, we got that times two. Both Boston's Danny Ainge and New York's Isiah Thomas decided to roll the dice on expensive veterans and, in doing so, helped Seattle and Portland along in their rapid rebuilding projects -- as if they needed the help. While in the short term these moves bring two star players to a dilapidated Eastern Conference, in the long-term it may only ensure the continued dominance of the West.
Ray Allen #34
Terrence Vaccaro/NBAE via Getty Images
Time is up for Zach Randolph and Ray Allen in the Northwest. Next stop, Northeast.
It continues a tried and true formula in the NBA -- find the biggest sucker at the table, and take all their chips. Getting Isiah on the phone has been a key part of the rebuilding process for the Suns, Bulls, Raptors and Magic, and it appears the Blazers are the latest to take the plunge.
Of course, the Blazers first plundered Ainge a year ago in the Brandon Roy deal, and now it appears the Sonics have done the same. Ainge's deal for Ray Allen represents a full-circle move by the Celtics. When he took over, Ainge decided to blow up Boston's nucleus because he had an old team that had peaked in the mid-40s in wins and wasn't going to be getting any better.
Five years later, he's dealt himself an old team that will peak in the mid-40s in wins and isn't going to get any better.
One of the keys to the deal is how much Allen has left in the tank. At first glance, it seems quite a bit. Though he'll be 32 when he dons Celtic green, his numbers have been virtually identical each of the past several seasons. Additionally, wings who can shoot tend to age much better than those who can't, and Allen is among the best shooters of all time. That's why players like Reggie Miller, Jeff Hornacek, Walter Davis and Steve Kerr were able to play at levels near their peak effectiveness until their mid-30s.
However, the NBA is a grueling life, and those players are the exceptions. Many more players similar skill-sets began to decline in their early 30s, usually because the injuries simply caught up with them. Great shooters like Allan Houston, Mitch Richmond, Rolando Blackman, Glen Rice and Dale Ellis all hit the wall at 31 or 32 (though Ellis succeeded at a lower level for several more years). So did a shooting guard by the name of Danny Ainge, which makes you wonder why he signed off on this deal.
Plus, there's another factor here. Allen has long had a sore knee, and he also underwent surgery on both ankles this offseason. Maybe it's nothing and he comes back fresh as a daisy, but it's hardly a positive sign.
That's why Seattle made the right move cashing in its Ray Allen stock immediately and building the team around Kevin Durant, Jeff Green and (perhaps) Rashard Lewis. Additionally, Wally Szczerbiak and Chris Wilcox both come off the books in 2009, giving new Sonics GM Sam Presti either a $20 million war chest in expiring contracts to trade for another star, or a huge chunk of cap space with which to pursue free agents.
Meanwhile, Ainge's only option now is to double down on the bet he just made. The Pierce-Allen-Al Jefferson triumvirate should be an effective one, but unless it's surrounded by more quality it won't amount to much more than a first-round playoff defeat -- especially without quality defenders to compliment them.
To make this work, Ainge must also use the combo of Gerald Green and Theo Ratliff's expiring contract to try to pry away a quality big man to pair with Jefferson, and he has to use his midlevel exception to bring in a decent point guard. (Alternatively, he should call his buddy Chris Wallace in Memphis and ask what it would take to get the suddenly disposable Kyle Lowry).
That's where we come up with the second key to the deal -- Boston's pockets. I sure hope Ainge got the owners to sign off on paying luxury tax the next three years before he pushed this trade through, because otherwise I'm not sure it makes sense.
The Celtics are close to the luxury tax line already and would be way over next year if they extend Al Jefferson (and, perhaps, Tony Allen) and get a player in return for Ratliff. Ainge's only hope, it seems, is to pursue Isiah's strategy of using his young players and expiring deals to take on contracts nobody else wants. We've all seen how that worked out.
In the meantime, he has three stars -- but no point guard, no center and no defense. It will be one of the more entertaining 44-win teams in recent years, and who knows, maybe in the East that will be enough to provide the illusion of success by getting them to the second round of the playoffs. But unless the C's are ready to go all-in and pay through the nose, it's hard to see what the point was, because in three years they'll be a lot worse off for it.
Speaking of Isiah, the other big deal on Thursday was the Knicks' trade of Channing Frye and Steve Francis to Portland for Zach Randolph, Dan Dickau and Fred Jones. On the surface, this seems like a home run -- the Knicks got a 20-10 guy in return for two guys they'll hardly use.
Honestly, I'd like this trade a lot more for New York if they'd turn around and trade Randolph some place else. He's an important chip that came at a surprisingly low cost, but he really doesn't fit New York's personnel well.
The combo of Randolph and Eddy Curry will be the worst defensive frontcourt in basketball, and meanwhile only one of them can post up at any given time. Yes, Randolph has a nice touch from outside, but that's not where the focus of his game should be. And the two of them both are poor passers from the low block, which means teammates won't benefit much from the double-teams they draw.
I don't fault Isiah for making this deal, because on talent alone it was probably too good to pass up, but I'm really interested to see whether he's going to keep Randolph. On the surface, it seems Randolph and Curry will diminish each other's production (not to mention the minutes of super-sub David Lee), and the gain will be far less than it appears on paper.
Alternatively, one really has to appreciate the approach Kevin Pritchard is taking to building the Blazers. In Frye he adds a second power forward who can shoot -- joining LaMarcus Aldridge -- and that should give Oden plenty of room to operate on the low block. Room that Randolph was going to take away, mind you, which was one incentive for making the deal.
Additionally, he's positioned himself to have oodles of cap space in 2009 when Francis and Raef LaFrentz come off the books -- right before he has to extend the deals of Aldridge, Roy and Sergio Rodriguez. By that point, one would expect Portland to be a coveted free-agent destination, and so the Blazers could do a lot of damage in the market that summer …if Seattle doesn't beat them to the punch.
So the two Northwest teams just made their foundations a whole lot stronger, while two more Eastern teams rolled the dice on big contracts that are questionable fits with their current rosters. Just another day in the NBA, it seems, where the chips keep piling up at the Western side of the table after two more Eastern GMs went all-in with weak hands.
John Hollinger writes for ESPN
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With 6:43 remaining in the 4th quarter of game 3 down
13 about to go 0-3 in the series
"I said to myself 'I'm not going out like this.'" - Dwayne Wade Finals MVP
John Hollinger trying to get at Zeke, big surprise there. I just don't understand how getting Zack Randolph for Steve Francis and Channing Frye can be seen as a "desparation" move.
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life was hell every day the devils tryin me but i paid my debt to society after 27 months ill tell you one thing i know why the caged bird sings
I love the Portland and NYK deal for both teams.
THe Ray Allen Trade is dumb for both teams.
How are you gonna take Jeff Green [TrueSF] right after Durant [SF]?
Durant is wayyyyyyyyyy too skinny right now to play PF. Hes like 6'10 220 LBS. If anything they shoulda taken a 4 or 5 such as Brandan Wright or Yi Jianlian.
He's calling these two desperation moves by the gm's, but I don't see it that way for either. Ainge had to do it to keep Pierce appeased, and while he's got a small window he really didn't need to get any younger. Now Rondo and Al have to step up (Al needs to maintain his numbers and Rondo has to prove he's the guy C's fans think he is...I haven't seen enough to make a statement about him).
Randolph for Franchise and Frye is a no brainer no matter what the make up of your team. If you organization is willing to pay him, you make that move 9 times out of 10.
I think what ppl forget is that if you have two players who threaten the post (Curry and Randolph) and three players who threaten from three point range (Stephon, Jamal and Q Rich), there really is no way you can double team anyone. Before what would happen was that teams would double Eddy without have to worry about the first guy they were guarding (which usually was Jeffries, Balkman or Lee)...now they can't do that since Zach is there. Either you leave him for the wide open jumper or you allow him the opportunity for a put-back in case Curry misses.
People liken this to Stephon and Stevie because they have similar games, but don't realize WHY Stephon and Stevie didn't work. Stephon and Stevie both needed to penetrate in order to play their games...somebody has to change their style because u can't have to PG's who can only penetrate on the floor at the same time. With Zach and Curry though, they don't have to worry about setting up other players, all they have to worry about is finishing. Now Stephon can drive to the basket and have two options in regards to finishers. Zach doesn't HAVE to change his game because his game doesn't interfere with Curry's...Stevie and Stephon's games did interfere with each others.
But once again, we have to wait and see when the season starts. I'm expecting Jamal or Stephon to bring it down the court and hand it to whichever big man is in the best position...leading to instant points
About Boston, he's acting like the trade suddenly turned the Celtics into an aging group.
In reality, the trade gave the Celtics a good balance of having what it takes to win now, and win in the future. Allen, Pierce, and Jefferson are good enough now for the Celtics to win 50 games next year (if everything goes right). Jefferson, Green, Rondo, etc. are young enough and promising enough that the Celtics still could be a very good in a few years even after Pierce and Allen decline.
As for the Knicks, they weren't doing much with Frye and Francis anyway. If it doesn't work out, they don't lose anything. It's a win-win situation.
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"Without question, no hesitation, Kareem Abdul-Jabbar was the best player I ever played against. Not just the best center, he was the best player, period. He was better than Magic, better than Larry, better than Michael Jordan. "
I think what ppl forget is that if you have two players who threaten the post (Curry and Randolph) and three players who threaten from three point range (Stephon, Jamal and Q Rich), there really is no way you can double team anyone. Before what would happen was that teams would double Eddy without have to worry about the first guy they were guarding (which usually was Jeffries, Balkman or Lee)...now they can't do that since Zach is there. Either you leave him for the wide open jumper or you allow him the opportunity for a put-back in case Curry misses.
People liken this to Stephon and Stevie because they have similar games, but don't realize WHY Stephon and Stevie didn't work. Stephon and Stevie both needed to penetrate in order to play their games...somebody has to change their style because u can't have to PG's who can only penetrate on the floor at the same time. With Zach and Curry though, they don't have to worry about setting up other players, all they have to worry about is finishing. Now Stephon can drive to the basket and have two options in regards to finishers. Zach doesn't HAVE to change his game because his game doesn't interfere with Curry's...Stevie and Stephon's games did interfere with each others.
But once again, we have to wait and see when the season starts. I'm expecting Jamal or Stephon to bring it down the court and hand it to whichever big man is in the best position...leading to instant points
knicks need to be more consistent with the 3 point shooting. q-rich is probably the only one who is close to consistent.
knicks need to be more consistent with the 3 point shooting. q-rich is probably the only one who is close to consistent.
True but Stephon and Jamal are good enough that u can't ignore them from three. Before everyone got hit with the injury bug, Stephon was keeping things honest by hitting that 3 whenever someone went to double Curry. This season was probably his best 3 point shooting season of his career...I don't think I've ever seen him shoot more 3's than 06-07. Jamal Crawford...you already know...when he's hot he's hot. And like you said, Q is the most consistent three point shooter.
If any one of them get injured, Nate is still the teams best percentage shooter from three
there really is no way you can double team anyone.
sure there is...the only thing son said that was 100% true, is that you can only attack one block at a time, meaning one or the other can't be in the post, and who's afraid of either from the field?
exactly...that's a problem whether you want to admit it or not, and neither are particularly well passing out of the double, so you're essentially gonna run 4 man sets, or a 3 man game each time down, with inconsistent shooters, 2 of which need the ball to make plays (Steph and Crawford). how is that gonna work out? feed the post, them niccas go on a cold streak, double teams galor...clear it out, let'em slash and pop, defeats the purpose of having 2 post players....maybe you play them at different times and limit the time they're on the floor together, which may be good since Curry can't seem to get in shape...let'em go hard for 10 minutes, let'em sit for the rest of the half, and start over after halftime..hahah...then let Zach get the lionshare of the gametime minutes...
only time can tell, but it looks like what you cats got in reality ain't what it looks like on paper...
and Boston...lmao...that's gonna be interesting seeing Ray and Paul share the ball AND get lil Al involved...
sure there is...the only thing son said that was 100% true, is that you can only attack one block at a time, meaning one or the other can't be in the post, and who's afraid of either from the field?
exactly...that's a problem whether you want to admit it or not, and neither are particularly well passing out of the double, so you're essentially gonna run 4 man sets, or a 3 man game each time down, with inconsistent shooters, 2 of which need the ball to make plays (Steph and Crawford). how is that gonna work out? feed the post, them niccas go on a cold streak, double teams galor...clear it out, let'em slash and pop, defeats the purpose of having 2 post players....maybe you play them at different times and limit the time they're on the floor together, which may be good since Curry can't seem to get in shape...let'em go hard for 10 minutes, let'em sit for the rest of the half, and start over after halftime..hahah...then let Zach get the lionshare of the gametime minutes...
only time can tell, but it looks like what you cats got in reality ain't what it looks like on paper...
and Boston...lmao...that's gonna be interesting seeing Ray and Paul share the ball AND get lil Al involved...
Randolph has pretty good range actually, and both Steph and Crawford can catch and hit a wide open 3's enough to keep a team honest. The only thing I'm worried about is Curry's and Randolph's passing ability, but the more they do it the more it'll improve I hope. As for Eddy's stamina, he was in pretty good shape last season, as it progressed he was needing less and less time on the bench. It's a gamble, but it's not like we traded anything of great value to go for this.
sure there is...the only thing son said that was 100% true, is that you can only attack one block at a time, meaning one or the other can't be in the post, and who's afraid of either from the field?
exactly...that's a problem whether you want to admit it or not, and neither are particularly well passing out of the double, so you're essentially gonna run 4 man sets, or a 3 man game each time down, with inconsistent shooters, 2 of which need the ball to make plays (Steph and Crawford). how is that gonna work out? feed the post, them niccas go on a cold streak, double teams galor...clear it out, let'em slash and pop, defeats the purpose of having 2 post players....maybe you play them at different times and limit the time they're on the floor together, which may be good since Curry can't seem to get in shape...let'em go hard for 10 minutes, let'em sit for the rest of the half, and start over after halftime..hahah...then let Zach get the lionshare of the gametime minutes...
only time can tell, but it looks like what you cats got in reality ain't what it looks like on paper...
and Boston...lmao...that's gonna be interesting seeing Ray and Paul share the ball AND get lil Al involved...
I agree with your general argument except that Randolph can hit jumpers out to 18 feet
Randolph has pretty good range actually, and both Steph and Crawford can catch and hit a wide open 3's enough to keep a team honest. The only thing I'm worried about is Curry's and Randolph's passing ability, but the more they do it the more it'll improve I hope. As for Eddy's stamina, he was in pretty good shape last season, as it progressed he was needing less and less time on the bench. It's a gamble, but it's not like we traded anything of great value to go for this.
^said it all for me. Stephon no longer needs to penetrate in order to score even though it's the thing he does best. The same goes for Jamal. Q Rich was always a decent 3 point shooter.
Zeke said he wanted Curry to work on that jumper, and I'm sure they'll practice that over the summer. If Curry is hittin that jumper...ECF threat easily.
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Celts, Knicks taking big risks in Allen, Randolph deals
