MLB Insider...June 6: Franchise Guys; Top 25 & under players; Surprising arms; Chats

Skooby · #1 06-06-05, 07:36 PM

A-Rod, Pujols, Santana all up for grabs
By Steve Phillips

The Major League Baseball draft is an inexact science. Teams are wrong far more than they're right about the players they select. Baseball is one of the few sports that develops its own players. The other major sports use high schools and universities to develop players for their so-called major leagues. For baseball, high schools and universities are just the laboratory used to sort through who is worthy of an investment and an opportunity to make the big leagues.

Many factors go into a player's development once he signs a professional contract. When a player is selected in the draft, his selection is based upon scouts' evaluations of his physical attributes and skills. Scouts project what a player can become after considering his strengths and weaknesses and his ability to overcome those weaknesses through his time in the minor leagues. They essentially close their eyes and dream of stars.

In the end, some players fulfill their potential and some do not. Actually, most do not. If organizations knew in the beginning what they later find out about the players, they could sure save a lot of time and money.

Having been a general manager, and knowing some of the mistakes I and other GMs have made, it made me wonder what a draft would look like if teams actually had the crystal ball and could make their choices again, forgoing the mistakes and selecting only major-league players.

Here is how I would see the first round of the draft playing out this year if teams were able to pick players currently in the major leagues with the idea that they wanted to be successful using a five-year plan (this is the exact order in which the actual draft will take place):

1. Arizona Diamondbacks: Alex Rodriguez, SS
He has the most homers ever by a hitter before the age of 30. He will go down in history as one of the most prodigious offensive players ever to play the game. The good news from the day of the draft is that he will be a "real Diamondback" despite never being a "real Yankee." By the way, I would draft him as a shortstop.

Pujols

2. Kansas City Royals: Albert Pujols, 1B
He is as focused on the field as he is committed off of the field. There might not be a better representative on or off the field for any organization. Plus, he's only 25 years old and is more mature than any player I've ever been around. He can pound the ball, too.

3. Seattle Mariners: Miguel Tejada, SS
He plays every day and plays well every day. It's hard to believe a shortstop who drives in 150 runs a season would be the third overall pick. He also plays with passion.

4. Washington Nationals: Johan Santana, LHP
He is so good that he not only dominates when he's on the mound but also makes more good hitters look bad than anybody else toeing the rubber right now. He can put a hitter in a slump faster than you can say "best strikeout-to-walk ratio in the majors." His youth moves him way up the board.

Martinez

5. Milwaukee Brewers: Pedro Martinez, RHP
He can go by his first name only, which automatically means he's a star. When Pedro pitches, it's an event. He brings energy and enthusiasm to the ballpark. The Dodgers traded him to the Expos early in his career because they thought he was too slight and couldn't log enough innings. Now we know better. He is pitching like he has at least several good years left.

6. Toronto Blue Jays: Miguel Cabrera, OF
This kid is a phenom. He's just a baby and he's going to get even better. He is in front of some pretty good players because of his youth. He will produce big numbers for longer than anybody else in this draft. He has Hall of Famer written all over him.

7. Colorado Rockies: Vladimir Guerrero, OF
He is a baseball player through and through. He lives and breathes the sport. He is the proverbial five-tool player, but his passion for the game elevates him above his peers. He will log a couple more MVP seasons before he is done.

8. Tampa Bay Devil Rays: Bobby Abreu, OF
He can do it all. Another five-tool star. He hits for average and power. He can steal bases and he can throw. He is in the midst of what will be a Hall of Fame career.

Jones

9. New York Mets: Chipper Jones, 3B
Considering he named his son Shea, it is only appropriate that the Mets select him. Hey, employ the "if you can't beat him join him" philosophy. He is the NL version of Derek Jeter, and he has power. He is an RBI machine. Thirteen consecutive division titles only happen when you have stars and leaders. He is a leader of leaders and a star of stars.

10. Detroit Tigers: Derrek Lee, 1B
He is so high in this draft because I believe in him. He has gotten better every year. The power numbers, batting average, RBI production and defense have exploded for this tremendous athlete. Triple Crown potential is real.

11. Pittsburgh Pirates: Manny Ramirez, OF
He is a hitting machine. He doesn't have the tools of some of the others on the board, but he is the purest of hitters. Plus, he works at his craft, which is a good example for others in the organization. He is one of the best right-handed hitters ever to play the game.

12. Cincinnati Reds: Tim Hudson, RHP
He has great stuff, but not the best in the draft. He just wins games like he has the best stuff around. He has a 98-43 record so far and he's just moving into the prime of his career. He is a winner who does the little things (and big things) to help his team.

13. Baltimore Orioles: Derek Jeter, SS
He hasn't put up nearly the numbers that most of the other players in the first round have. He is a baseball player, though. When the game is on the line and you need a base hit, Jeter is your man. If you need a stolen base, Jeter is your man. If you need a big defensive play to save the game, that's right – Derek Jeter is your man. He delivers in critical situations with more regularity than any current player, it seems.

Halladay

14. Cleveland Indians: Roy Halladay, RHP
He is the same pitcher now who won the AL Cy Young Award in 2003. His stuff is electric and his approach is relentless. And think about this: He's only 28 years old. He will earn a couple more of those trophies for the mantle before he hangs it up.

15. Chicago White Sox: Carlos Delgado, 1B
His swing is sweet and violent. It is smooth, yet explosive. He has great talent and a good head on his shoulders. He can bang it with the best of them, but he can also be patient and hit for average as well. Plus, he has that twinkle in his eye that stars feature.

16. Florida Marlins: Brad Lidge, RHP
He exploded on the scene last year and emerged as one of the most dominant closers in the game. He can get a strikeout at will, which is a great trait for a closer. He can also pitch multiple innings several days in a row.

17. New York Yankees (from Philadelphia Phillies): Eric Gagne, RHP
He is one of the most dominant closers to ever toe the rubber. His consecutive saves record might never be broken. He fell behind Lidge because of slight health concerns, but he has a belly full of guts and three excellent pitches that he can throw for strikes.

18. San Diego Padres: Jake Peavy, RHP
Someday, we'll be talking about this guy the way we talk about Curt Schilling. He is a gamer and a big-game pitcher who doesn't just win – he shuts you down. He has Hall of Fame stuff and a Hall of Fame heart, now he just has to log innings.

Zambrano

19. Texas Rangers: Carlos Zambrano, RHP
There aren't many who compete like this guy. He's a workhorse and a bulldog, and he has power stuff. He has the potential to do what John Smoltz has done by winning a lot of big games as a starter and later making the transition to the closer's role. Too bad he can't pitch every day. He falls just behind Peavy because he needs to learn to control his emotions a bit better.

20. Chicago Cubs: Carlos Beltran, OF
This young guy is just heading into his prime, and he has all of the tools. He's a very good all-around player, and he's getting better. You can close your eyes and dream of 30/30 or 40/40 or 50/50, his tools are that good. He has the unique blend of speed and power, and he just needs to improve his rates (batting average, on-base percentage and slugging percentage) to go higher.

21. Oakland Athletics: Ichiro Suzuki, OF
He hits and he hits and he hits. His lack of power kept him down the board, but boy is he fun to watch. He can fly, and that allows him to shine on offense and defense. Plus, he has one of the best arms around (and it's an accurate arm).

22. Florida Marlins (from San Francisco Giants): Mark Prior, RHP
Despite the bad luck he's had staying healthy, his stuff is so compelling that you have to take a shot on him. He is a power control pitcher. That means he's a No. 1 starter who will log some serious strikeouts in his career. He just needs one healthy year to build on.

23. Boston Red Sox (from Los Angeles Angels): David Ortiz, 1B
Anybody nicknamed Big Papi must be a first-round pick. He has a flair for the dramatic and delivers in the clutch seemingly at will. He plays his best in big games, and that's a special trait to have. He is a power-hitting leader with charisma. People stay in their seats to watch him hit.

Sheffield

24. Houston Astros: Gary Sheffield, OF
He won't win any personality contests, but he will win some games for you – a lot of games. He plays hurt and plays to win. He is an RBI machine. He delivers more in timely situations than Fed Ex.

25. Minnesota Twins: Aramis Ramirez, 3B
He is one of the best two-way third basemen of this generation. He's still young and improving. His talent was ahead of his maturity, but it's evening up now. The best is still in front of him, and the past has been pretty good.

26. Boston Red Sox (from Los Angeles Dodgers): Roy Oswalt, RHP
He has good stuff and a knack for always giving his club a chance to win. He has been a plus-10 (wins compared to losses) three times in his short career already. That is indicative of a No. 1 starter. He just shows up and has that trait you want in a pitcher: he pitches well enough to win.

27. Atlanta Braves: Adam Dunn, OF
He has a chance to be a monster. He is very selective at the plate and earns a lot of walks. That's good, but it's coupled with far too many strikeouts. He has great power, what scouts call light-tower power. As he matures as a hitter and understands that patience is good, he will also realize that with runners in scoring position he needs to be more aggressive at the plate. He might soon hit 50 homers and drive in 150 runs on a yearly basis.

Teixeira

28. St. Louis Cardinals (from Boston Red Sox): Mark Teixeira, 1B
He has the right disposition to play the game. He loves to play and works hard to get better. He will keep getting better and will continue to develop his approach at the plate. He will hit for average and power and will become a big run producer. Bet on his future.

29. Florida Marlins (from New York Yankees): David Wright, 3B
This kid has all of the makings of a star. He has the tools and the skills to be a power-hitting Gold Glove third baseman. He just needs experience. He has unique patience for a young hitter. Plus, he has that special twinkle in his eye and a humility that is uncommon with greatness.

30. St. Louis Cardinals: Joe Mauer, C
He will become one of the best two-way catchers ever. He just needs to stay healthy, which is a slight concern. The ball comes off his bat and out of his hand different than most players. Still dealing with some projection here, but sometimes you have to take a chance on potential greatness.

There isn't an owner in baseball who would be unhappy about the quality they could land in a draft like this. Alas, this would take all of the fun out of the process. So instead the scouts will close their eyes and dream about high school and college kids becoming superstars.

Pujols best of 25-and-under group
By John Kruk

Editor's note: MLB analyst John Kruk discusses the best 25-and-under players in the majors.

Albert Pujols, 25, St. Louis Cardinals

Pujols
It's almost unfair to have him on this list because he may be the best overall hitter in the league. It's amazing the numbers he puts up even though he's just 25 years old.
A player isn't supposed to start to truly understand the game and all the little things that surround it until he's played four or five years, which makes what Pujols has done all the more astounding. This guy came into the league hitting the ball extremely well, hard and to all fields. He has a great understanding of pitch counts and what he's supposed to do in every situation.

Also, the Cardinals have done a fine job surrounding him with guys like Scott Rolen and Jim Edmonds to ensure Pujols doesn't get the Barry Bonds treatment. With those guys surrounding him, opposing pitchers are going to be in trouble for a long while.

Miguel Cabrera, 22, Florida Marlins

Cabrera
As good as Cabrera is, it's scary when you realize he still doesn't understand some facets of the game. Right now, he understands them to a degree, but his talent level gets him out of some trouble. He still has streaks where he swings at bad pitches and is very impatient and stubborn at the plate, but he has the ability to be another Pujols in a year or two.
Sometimes when players are struggling they don't want to make adjustments because they get in their heads that they're right. Eventually, Cabrera will realize when and where he needs to make adjustments. When he does, watch out, because it's going to be special.

Joe Mauer, 22, Minnesota Twins
David Wright, 22, New York Mets

Wright

Mauer
These two guys play two of the more demanding defensive positions in the game and are still thriving with their bats.
The only thing I worry about with Mauer is the fact that he plays catcher. It's the most demanding position in the majors and it may end up hurting him offensively unless he's one of those special guys like Mike Piazza and Ivan Rodriguez.

What those guys – and Mauer to a certain extent – do absolutely amazes me, because a catcher worries about the other team's hitters first, then his pitchers and finally his own hitters. He rarely has time to really concentrate on working on his own offensive skills. That mental grind can be a killer, especially to a young guy, but Mauer seems to be handling it well right now.

Hitting-wise, Mauer reminds me of John Olerud with more power. He has a nice, smooth, compact swing that can produce home runs.

Skooby · #2 06-06-05, 07:39 PM

Meanwhile, Wright seems to want to be the man in New York. He has proven that he has the confidence and will be a special player as he gets more comfortable. If I was calling the shots at Shea, I'd place him in the four or five hole and just keep him there and let him blossom. He's going to produce, and it's not helping him when you bounce him up and down in the lineup.

Josh Beckett, 25, Florida Marlins

He has the attitude that won his team its second World Series, and that's dangerous for everyone else. Last season it seemed like he kind of lived off his success from the World Series, but this season he's digging in and working hard.
He has filthy stuff and should win 15 games every season just by accident, barring an injury. If you put Beckett, Jake Peavy and Mark Prior all in the same room and said, "Pick one to start one game," I'd pick Beckett every time because of his stuff, which is the best among those three, and his attitude. When he's feeling it, he knows he can put a team on his shoulders and will win the game.

If I were building a team today …
By Rob Neyer

What's a "franchise player"? In my book, it's the one player who, at any given moment, you'd choose to build your franchise around. Now, this game can get a little tricky. Are we trying to win immediately? For the next three years? Or five years? Everybody will have their own definition. But the future is now, and I certainly wouldn't try to plan more than four or five years ahead.

With all that in mind, I thought it might be fun to look back over the last century or so and try to figure out who, at the time they were mid-career, would have been considered franchise players. I tried to ignore everything we know now, but of course that's much easier said than done.

1903-1907: Honus Wagner
For the better part of a decade, Honus Wagner rather than Ty Cobb ranked as the game's greatest player. Wagner was easier to get along with, he played a more valuable position (shortstop), and he was very nearly Cobb's equal with the bat and on the bases. Wagner, in fact, was a fantastic player in 1912, when he was 38. But it's hard to consider a player in his mid-30s as a franchise player, which is why the cutoff comes well before Wagner's time as a great player ended.

1908-1912: Ty Cobb
In 1908, Ty Cobb batted .324 to win his second of nine straight American League batting titles (and in the 10th year he batted .371, then won three more in a row). In 1911, perhaps The Georgia Peach's greatest season, he batted .420.

1913-1916: Walter Johnson
Cobb played 122 games in 1913 and 98 in 1914, and shortly after the 1916 season he turned 30. So as great as Cobb was, his reign as the ultimate franchise player lasted only five seasons. Meanwhile, in each season from 1913 through '16, Walter Johnson led the AL in innings, complete games, strikeouts and wins (totaling 116 in these four seasons).

1917-1918: Rogers Hornsby
Rogers Hornsby reached the majors in 1915, when he was 19, and in 1916 he ranked among the National League leaders in several hitting categories. In 1917, Hornsby led the league in slugging percentage and finished second in batting average and on-base percentage. He did slide some in 1918, but there was every reason to think he'd be one of the greatest players of the 1920s (which, of course, he was).

1919-1931: Babe Ruth
In 1919, Babe Ruth's last season with the Red Sox, he went 9-5 in 17 games as a pitcher. But his pitching days were over, and that was probably a good thing; Ruth's 2.97 ERA that season wasn't much better than the 3.22 American League ERA (especially considering that Fenway Park was, at that time, a pitcher's park). The Babe could hit, though. In '19, he played in only 130 games but still led the American League in runs, RBI, times on base and home runs (with the previously unimaginable total of 29). Perhaps Ruth's reign as baseball's franchise player actually ended a season or three earlier, but if anybody gets the benefit of the doubt, it's Ruth.

1932-1936: Lou Gehrig
Ruth was still a devastating hitter in 1932 – he hit 41 home runs and topped the American League in on-base percentage – but he was old, fat and obviously nearing the end of his career. Fortunately for the Yankees, Lou Gehrig was at the top of his game, and from 1932 through '36 would drive in 726 runs and (of course) play in every one of his team's games.

1937-1942: Joe DiMaggio
Gehrig was still an excellent player in 1937, but 1) he was 34 years old, and 2) Joe DiMaggio, in his second season, played a brilliant center field and led the American League with a .673 slugging percentage. DiMaggio was not yet the best player in the game, but he was only 22 and there was good reason to think he would be the best.

1943-1944: Stan Musial
Stan Musial was among the few great players who didn't spend most of 1942 through 1945 in the service (he missed only '45). He established himself as a rookie star in 1942, then led the Cardinals to consecutive World Series titles in '43 and '44.

1945: Hal Newhouser
With Musial finally off with Uncle Sam, we're left with Detroit's Hal Newhouser, who won 25 games and captured Most Valuable Player honors for the second straight season. And while Newhouser certainly benefited from the lack of quality competition during the war, he would also win 26 games in 1946 and 21 in '48.

1946-1951: Ted Williams
With all the great players back, nearly everybody considered DiMaggio the greatest in the game, but 1) in 1946 he was 31, and 2) he actually wasn't as valuable as Ted Williams, anyway. Short of Ruth and Barry Bonds, no hitter has ever been better during a four-year stretch than Williams was from '46 to '49. An elbow injury cost him half of another great season in 1950, but he returned in 1951 to post big numbers again. Williams was called back into duty during the Korean War, though, and when he returned to the Red Sox in 1953, he was nearly 35 and would never again be completely healthy.

1952-1953: Stan Musial
You can make an awfully good case for Musial going all the way back to 1946; he was a better fielder and baserunner than Williams, and a pretty fair hitter besides. But Musial was no longer a young man by this time, and he makes a repeat appearance on this list only because a particularly amazing player spent most of the 1952 season and all of the '53 season playing baseball in the Army. That particularly amazing player?

1954-1966: Willie Mays
Mickey Mantle might well have been a better, more valuable player than Willie Mays, at least through 1962. But at the time, you never quite knew what you'd get with Mantle, who from '54 through '62 played 150 or more games only three times. Granted, that wasn't bad in the days of 154-game schedules, but Mays played more than 150 games in all of those seasons (and kept that streak going through 1966). With Mays, you knew what you were getting practically every day of every season. And what you were getting was one of the five greatest players ever.

1967-1970: Carl Yastrzemski
Most of the great players were still in the National League, but the great outfield trio of Frank Robinson, Willie Mays and Hank Aaron were all in their middle or late 30s; meanwhile, the best (relatively) young players in that league were probably **** Allen and Willie McCovey, but both had their limitations. Carl Yastrzemski, in the American League, had been highly touted since taking over for Ted Williams as Red Sox left fielder in 1961, but it wasn't until '67 that he finally enjoyed the huge season everybody was expecting, and then he was fantastic for three more.

1971: Reggie Jackson
In 1969, when he was only 23, Reggie Jackson hit 47 homers and led the AL in runs scored and slugging percentage. His power dropped a bunch in 1970, but Jackson bounced back in '71 with 32 homers. He was still only 25 and looked like one of the great young players in the game. Which he was, but he certainly couldn't match...

1972-1975: Joe Morgan
Little Joe Morgan was the National League's MVP in both 1975 and '76, but one could argue he was just as good from '72 through '74. It's tempting to give him the benefit of the doubt in '76 – arguably his greatest season – but he turned 33 that September, and not many teams have benefited from building around a 33-year-old second baseman. And in fact, 1976 was Morgan's last great season, and by '78 he was merely good.

1976-1982: Mike Schmidt
As a rookie in 1974, Mike Schmidt batted .196 with 136 strikeouts in 132 games, so it might have seemed like a fluke when, the very next year, he paced the National League with 36 home runs and a .546 slugging percentage. It wasn't. He hit 38 homers in 1975 and 38 again in '76. Schmidt also won his first Gold Glove that season and certainly ranked as the best young player in the game.

1983-1987: Cal Ripken
Cal Ripken was Rookie of the Year in 1982. Most rookies of the year aren't as good the next season, but Ripken was good enough to win an MVP Award in 1983 and played just as well in '84. Granted, he wouldn't play brilliantly again until 1991, but considering those first three seasons and his youth, there was still a great case to be made for him through the '87 season, at least.

1988-1989: Will Clark
Will Clark? Yes, Will Clark. It's easy to forget just how good Clark was, early (and later) in his career. Clark and Barry Bonds were born four months apart, and both were rookies in 1986. Here's what they did in their first four seasons, in terms of Adjusted OPS, Clark with the Giants and Bonds with the Pirates:

1986 122 1031987 155 1141988 163 1471989 177 126
True, Bonds was obviously the better all-around player, but after those first four seasons, there was every reason to think that Clark would be, over the course of their careers, the better hitter. Of course, it didn't quite work out that way.

1990-1995: Barry Bonds
There were hints, before 1990, that Barry Bonds would become the greatest player in the game. More than hints, maybe. But if you thought Bonds would be the National League's MVP in 1990, you get the gold star. And if you thought, before 1990, that Bonds would wind up winning seven MVP awards, you probably should have my job.

1996-2005: Alex Rodriguez
In 1996, Barry Bonds hit 41 home runs. He was 31, though, and led the National League in only one statistic: walks. Meanwhile, Alex Rodriguez led the American League in batting average (.358), runs (122), doubles (54) and total bases (379) ... and for most of the season he was 20 years old. And today? He's 29; he's two seasons removed from winning a Gold Glove at shortstop; and at the moment he leads the American League with 49 RBI. If Rodriguez were 30, I'd think long and hard about giving him the last spot on this list. But if I were building a team today and could keep anybody for the next four or five years, he'd still be my first choice.

Surprising pitchers yield few home runs
By Gary Gillette

As everyone knows, scoring is down this year: more than 3 percent in the NL (to 4.5 runs per game per team) and 7 percent in the AL (to 4.7 runs per game per team). The biggest reason for the drop in scoring is the hefty decline in home runs in both leagues, approximately 12 percent in the NL and 14 percent in the AL so far. Speculation as to why is rampant, with the dreaded "S-word" being invoked early and often.

In 2005, a group of veteran pitchers has both contributed to and been aided by the downward trend offensively. Some early-season surprises, such as Nate Robertson, are pretty clearly the beneficiaries of Lady Luck. Others, such as Bruce Chen and Dave Williams, are benefiting from maturity and opportunity. Matt Clement and Jon Garland are in the early stages of what could well be their career years. Thirtysomethings Mark Redman and Esteban Loaiza, along with a quartet of veteran relievers, are forging comebacks.

Detroit's Nate Robertson is a decent pitcher, with three average or better pitches, but his success so far is not likely to be sustainable. The 27-year-old Tigers' southpaw is currently ninth in the AL in ERA at 3.17, mostly because he has allowed only two home runs in 59.2 innings. However, his 28 walks and 27 strikeouts indicate that Robertson is staying away from the strike zone and avoiding the long ball because he's afraid of getting hit hard. That pattern usually can't last for a full season.

Baltimore's Bruce Chen (5-2, 10th in AL in won-lost percentage at .714) exemplifies a type of young pitcher who always had potential and is now realizing it. In Chen's case, his stuff is marginal and he needed more maturity to learn how to utilize it properly. Chen won't get any better, but he can certainly win games for the Orioles in the same way that dozens of veteran lefties with marginal stuff have thrived over the years with many teams.

Chris Capuano
Starting Pitcher
Milwaukee Brewers
Profile

2005 SEASON STATISTICS
GM W L BB K ERA
11 4 4 27 56 3.01

Chris Capuano of Milwaukee, another 27-year-old lefty making a big leap forward, sports a 3.01 ERA after 11 starts, almost two full runs below his previous career average of 4.90. Capuano's slider makes him very tough on left-handed hitters; his changeup is his out pitch to right-handers. But the jury is still out on Capuano, who started 2005 with a 4.76 ERA in five April starts, consistent with his prior career. Capuano's 1.94 ERA in six May starts might just be a hot streak that won't last when NL hitters figure out how to adjust to him.

Left-hander Dave Williams seems to have put it together for the Pirates this year after struggling for the past three seasons. Williams needs to mix his three average pitches effectively to win; without good control, he'll get hit hard. At 26, he's shown improved command and should now have enough experience to carve out a career as a decent No. 4 starter.

In Boston, Matt Clement and his perfect 6-0 record and 3.17 ERA are the toast of Beantown. Clement is a big reason the defending world champs have stayed close to the streaking Orioles despite injuries to Curt Schilling and David Wells. And if you're looking for reasons the Red Sox finally won the World Series while the Cubs are on the verge of another summer of discontent, Clement is Exhibit A in the category of smart management. While his 9-13 record in Chicago last year may have disappointed Cubs management, the Red Sox realized that the 30-year-old righty was a diamond in the rough and that his Adjusted ERA of 120 (i.e., 20 percent better than NL average) was far more relevant that his record. With better than above-average velocity on his two-seam fastball, Clement gets lots of ground balls, which is a key to thriving in Fenway. While he's probably not going to morph into Curt Schilling, Clement clearly has the stuff to win 20 games.

Skooby · #3 06-06-05, 07:44 PM

On the south side of Chicago, Jon Garland of the White Sox has been hit hard in his last two starts after starting the season with eight straight wins, elevating his ERA from 2.41 to 3.22. Garland isn't really as good as he looked in his first eight starts, of course, but people forget that he's still learning on the job at age 25. With five big-league seasons under his belt, Garland is a competitive pitcher who should demonstrate more consistency as the season moves forward.

In Pittsburgh, Mark Redman is pitching as he was expected to by the Athletics, only a year too late. As a result of a dramatically increased ground ball/fly ball ratio, Redman has allowed only three home runs while fashioning a 3.14 ERA. With 20 walks and only 38 strikeouts in 71.2 innings, the 31-year-old lefty won't be able to sustain that for the rest of the year. Redman is a solid pitcher with a good changeup and a good enough breaking ball to expect a league-average ERA, though not much more.

Bartolo Colon is making a comeback with the Angels after posting the highest ERA (5.01) of his career in 2004 since his rookie season in 1997 – the result of increased weight and substantially decreased velocity. Colon's 6-3 record and 2.75 ERA so far this year are primarily due to his improved control, which has resulted in fewer walks and a dramatic decrease in gopher balls.

Aaron Har ang
Starting Pitcher
Cincinnati Reds
Profile

2005 SEASON STATISTICS
GM W L BB K ERA
10 4 2 19 57 2.97

Aaron Harang appears to have broken through in Cincinnati this year, posting a 2.97 ERA in his first 10 starts. At age 27, the big right-hander has only average stuff, but Harang has prospered in 2005 by keeping the ball in Great American Ball Park and out of the Ohio River, allowing only one homer in 34.2 innings there. Given that Harang's road stats this year aren't nearly so good (4.22 ERA), it's probably a fluke.

In Washington, the pesky Nationals have been rewarded for their faith in 33-year-old righty Esteban Loaiza, who was pummeled last year after finishing third in the AL in ERA (2.90) in 2003 with Chicago. Loaiza's velocity is better than it was last year; perhaps more importantly, his velocity is more consistent. As a result, Loaiza's strikeout rate is up, his walk rate is down and his gopher-ball rate is way down, combining for a 3.56 ERA that belies his 1-4 record.

Perhaps the most unexpected comeback is being made by Florida's Brian "Scuffy" Moehler, who has the seventh-best ERA in the NL (2.59 in 12 games). A 33-year-old sinker-slider pitcher who hasn't made 20 starts in the majors since 2000 with Detroit, the veteran right-hander has always depended on keeping the ball down and being stingy with walks. It worked for a while in Detroit, so Moehler can probably keep it up for a while with the Marlins.

In the bullpen, four veterans have resurrected their careers: 32-year-old Dustin Hermanson (perfect in 11 save opportunities for the White Sox); 37-year-old Todd Jones (nine saves in 10 opportunities for the Marlins); 31-year-old Ugueth Urbina (nine saves in 11 opportunities the Tigers); and 35-year-old Al Reyes (three saves and six holds for the Cardinals). However, these short relievers have averaged fewer than 25 innings pitched so far this season, so their impact is really far less than it seems.

A close look at these pitchers shows that much of their unexpected success is due to their very low rates of home runs allowed. If the drop in long balls is largely due to the cold spring weather in much of the country, fans should see scoring creep back toward 2004 levels as the season goes on. If the drop is really due to better steroid testing that has robbed many sluggers of their superhuman power, as many have postulated, then fans may be seeing a paradigm shift this year. History would argue that it's probably random variance combined with the weather.

Numbers are down, but it's still early
By Rob Neyer

The Incredible Shrinking Slugger. The End of Baseball as We've Known It (Recently). Finally, a return to the Good Old Days, when you had to pull the ball to hit it over the fence and shortstops were banjo hitters.

Or so we've heard, a third of the way into this young season. But what do the numbers tell us? Below, courtesy of STATS, Inc., are last season's and this season's key hitting stats, through May:

2004 2005 %ChangeRuns 9.56 9.13 -4.5Doubles 3.72 3.63 -2.4Triples 0.36 0.39 +6.7Homers 2.15 1.97 -8.5Walks 6.88 6.45 -6.3Steals 1.06 1.10 +4.2Batting .266 .262 -1.5On-Base .336 .330 -1.8Slugging .423 .414 -2.1The raw numbers don't show much; you certainly couldn't tell any difference just by watching the games, even if you watched a whole bunch of them. But the percentage changes look significant and they probably are. With the exception of triples and steals – coincidentally or not, both are "speed stats" – hitting is down across the board (and even singles, not pictured above, are down slightly, 2.3 percent).
What might account for the lower production? There are all kinds of crazy theories floating around – the absence of Barry Bonds (who actually does impact the walks by roughly one percent), better pitching, substandard bats – but there are only three reasons that I'm able to take seriously: random fluctuation, decreased use of performance-enhancing drugs, and uncommonly cold spring weather. Some or all of these could be tested, but that's for another day. Today, let's simply assume the decline is real and make some sort of educated guess about what this season might look like, four months from now.

We cannot assume that today's statistics will simply continue exactly as they have. For one thing, hitting typically picks up as the weather warms up. Last year, for example, home runs increased six percent after May, and overall run production edged upward by one percent. If we assume – and yes, I know we're doing a lot of assuming today, but really it can't be helped – that the summer weather will have the same impact this season that it had least season, we can guess that by season's end, major leaguers will have averaged 9.20 runs and 2.05 home runs per game.

And to find another season with numbers like that, we have to get in our time machine and travel all the way back to … 2002, when the big boys averaged 9.24 and 2.09 home runs per game. Which isn't to say that 2005 doesn't represent a real change; in 2002, run production was at its lowest since 1993, and the home-run rate was the lowest since 1998. We're hardly talking about 1968, though, or even 1988 (8.3 runs and 1.5 home runs per game).

But remember all those assumptions? We're talking about relatively small differences in percentages. While it's not likely that this season's totals will equal those of 2004, it's also not unlikely that this season's totals will look quite comfortable nestled among those that have come in recent seasons.

In other words, it's just too early to tell. Maybe the spring weather's to blame, or maybe it's not. Maybe the hitters aren't using banned drugs and it's hurting them, or maybe the pitchers aren't using them, either, and it's hurting both groups. Maybe it's just been a flukey two months. Maybe in four months we'll know a lot more. Or maybe we won't.

Mailbag: Heckling, booing part of job
By Jerry Crasnick

A dip into the Insider mailbag, as we respond to readers' comments about ballpark security, bullpen meltdowns and the early All-Star Game balloting results. We'll save all your "Runaway Bride" and "Deep Throat" related queries and get to them at a later date.

Jerry,
Audiences at sporting events have become numb to the lack of etiquette. When I go to a game, I always hear scornful heckling from the crowd, yet it doesn't faze me or the thousands of other people in the stadium. Sporting events are socially recognized as family outings, with arenas marketing games to families and selling family ticket packages. However, children are exposed to boisterous behavior in ballparks and stadiums regularly. I feel this is an irresolvable issue. There is nothing that pro leagues can do to prevent this kind of behavior. I have friends that feel this type of behavior is permissible, and for the amount of money that they pay to go to games, heckling should be complementary for them. Like your article implied, people cannot sit and watch a game anymore.

– Monty, New York

Monty,
I don't want to sound like an apologist for players, but I doubt that many middle relievers go to a game and say, "Wouldn't it be fun to get into an argument with fans tonight, throw a chair into the stands and incur a possible lawsuit?" The players I spoke with understand that heckling and booing come with the job. However, they draw the line at abuse that involves racial epithets or comments related to family heritage. I did hear an interesting comment from Yankees reliever Mike Stanton, who said that in some towns, particularly in the Midwest, the adults are polite and the teens do most of the cursing. "Some of these kids need to be put over your knee and spanked," Stanton said.

Jerry,
I just finished reading your article on ballpark security, and I agree with much, if not all, of what you said. Fan/player relations are at an all-time low in all sports. Clearly, things have spun out of control, and while fans must learn that it is still just a game, I do not feel that the players are blameless in this. While no attack on players is justified in any way shape or form, I can't help but feel some of the anger is due to players who forget that they are still playing a game. For the average fan who pays a week's salary to go watch a steroid-abusing meathead who makes $15 million a year, and then has the audacity to claim a lack of respect, or hold out for more money, or any of the many ills plaguing the insanely rich of professional sports (e.g. Latrell Sprewell, Ron Artest, any of Drew Rosenhaus' clients), how can a fan not feel some disgust?

– John, Burlington, Vt.

John,
There's no question some fans feel resentful because they think athletes are pampered and out of touch, but that's a lame excuse for some of the Neanderthal antics at ballparks these days. We live in a society that's angry. Motorists are angry. Bloggers are angry. And the guy in the bleachers working on his fourth beer is angry. I don't think he really distinguishes between a nitwit like Ron Artest and a genuine good guy like Paul Quantrill, who makes $3 million for the Yankees and just happens to have a 6.53 ERA.

Jerry,
If your article was supposed to make me sympathize for the players, it's a complete failure. I dislike them now more than ever. By grouping together an incredibly low amount of incidents, you make the problem appear WAY larger than it is. And the old "it's just a reflection of our times" line has been uttered since the Cave Man. It's just a cliché – something bad is happening due to moral decay! Where are the numbers? Are there more attacks now than in the 1940s? Fox News is calling. They've got a job for you, Jerry.

– Unsigned

Unsigned,
Thanks for the comments. If you don't think moral decay is an issue, you might want to spend a couple of nights hanging out with the crowd above the Phillies bullpen. That would probably change your mind.

Jerry,
I was reading your article "Relievers, Outfielders on the Front line," and while I found much of it to be insightful, I have to point out a mistake on your part. You claimed (in a fashion similar to the recent remarks of Padre-hater Paul Lo Duca) that the visitor's bullpen in San Diego was an "afterthought." This is quickly becoming a misconception. The designers felt that fans liked the bullpens out in the open so that they could see the players warming up. They felt so strongly about this that they built it that way despite opposition from some who felt that warmup mounds in foul territory were dangerous. An "afterthought" would imply they didn't consider the ramifications of their actions beforehand. Whether or not you agree with the assessment does not mean you should start spouting comments made by the likes of Paul Lo Duca, whose attitude towards the Padres is not appreciated south of L.A.

– Sean, San Diego

Sean,
I have no direct evidence of Paul Lo Duca's Padre-hating tendencies. He recently called Petco Park "beautiful," then expressed concerns about the visiting dugout after sliding down five steps in pursuit of a foul pop. And lots of opposing pitchers have complained about the visiting bullpen. Maybe the Petco 'pen wasn't an "afterthought." But if this is what the designers had in mind, they should have done a few more focus groups with players beforehand.

Jerry,
How could you overlook Toronto's Miguel Batista in your list of effective closers? The guy is 3-0 with nine saves and an era of 1.61. Finding him has been no small part of the Jays' success so far this season. That he's in the mold of Joe Nathan and John Smoltz (converted starters) should have made him an obvious candidate for discussion. You've gotta feel for the guys playing in Canada. They seem to get ignored down here, even by the guys paid to cover baseball. I swear if Joe Carter had hit that World Series-winning homer while playing for the Red Sox or Yankees, he'd be much closer to the Hall of Fame. But sadly, he did it in the land that thine forgot.

– Greg, Minneapolis

Greg,
I must admit, I had my doubts about Batista as a closer because of his previous control issues. But he's only walked six batters in 22 1/3 innings, and Gustavo Chacin and Josh Towers have given the Jays enough in back of Roy Halladay to make the arrangement work. I'm still not sure that the lack of attention accorded Batista is a Canadian thing, though. Joe Carter, while a true professional, wasn't a Hall of Famer regardless of where he played. And by the way, what's with the "thine" reference?

Skooby · #4 06-06-05, 07:49 PM

Jerry,
After reading your article on the troubles faced by closers this year, I can't help but wonder if steroid testing is affecting that position in particular. A lot is made about power hitters benefiting from steroid use, but closers probably can benefit more than anyone because steroids would allow them to recover quicker from the day-to-day abuse they take. It also does not hurt that it can bump up the top-end speed of their fastball. The correlation is hard to ignore.

– Dane, Charlotte, N.C.

Dane,
It's a tougher judgment to make when you refrain from generalities and look at specifics. When Octavio Dotel blows out his elbow or Danny Kolb starts walking hitters left and right, I don't automatically think "steroids." But like you, I find it puzzling that the link between pitchers and performance enhancers isn't made more often. When 38 minor-leaguers were busted for failing drug tests on Opening Day, 17 were pitchers. I've talked to players who say steroid use among pitchers is more prevalent than the public believes. So wouldn't it follow that a more stringent policy would manifest itself in diminished radar gun readings and a lack of stamina on the part of pitchers? I don't see how it wouldn't.

Jerry,
Shame on you. A two-page article on closers in baseball and not one mention of Everyday Eddie Guardado, he of the 700 appearances and among the league leaders in saves again in the AL. I enjoy your articles, but this was an oversight on your part.

– Paul, Seattle

Paul, I am properly chastised. As one front office executive pointed out, "The closer's job is all about confidence and mindset. You see guys who have pretty mediocre stuff, but their mindset is, they're not going to get beat. You see other guys with dynamite stuff who don't have that mindset, and they get beat on a regular basis." Why is Eddie Guardado at 149 career saves and counting, and LaTroy Hawkins, another former Twin with superior stuff, now widely regarded as an eighth-inning guy who can't close games? It's more about stress management than velocity.

Jerry,
I recently was shocked to learn that Cesar Izturis is not even among the top-five vote-getters for the starting spot as the National League shortstop in the upcoming All-Star game, considering he leads the majors in hits and is playing his usual Gold Glove-caliber defense. Living on the West Coast, I am fortunate enough to see Izturis play every day and have watched him grow into what I feel is the best shortstop in the National League. The only explanation for the lack of votes that he has received must be that people on the East Coast do not have the same opportunity to see him play. I am asking you to help out Cesar Izturis and the rest of us Dodger fans who have little to root for these days and give a shout out for Cesar.

– Joey, Santa Barbara, Calif.

Joey,
I assume that Izturis' vote total will mount as the West Coast ballots come in and fans nationwide begin to realize what a fine two-way player he has become – and that Nomar Garciaparra has been on the disabled list since April. Meanwhile, as an aside, has anyone noticed the impressive numbers that Felipe Lopez is putting up in Cincinnati? He's got a .907 OPS and 22 extra-base hits in 146 at-bats. Lopez deserves more publicity as well.

MLB Rumor Central: Return to Miami?

WHO INTERESTED THE SKINNY

Danny Graves
Reds

Marlins

Return to Miami?
Former University of Miami star Danny Graves might be in a Marlins uniform by week's end, the South Florida Sun-Sentinel reports.
"He wants to come down here so much," Marlins reliever John Riedling, a friend and former Reds teammate, told the newspaper. "In '99, [the Reds] had that playoff game with the Mets and they lost, and he's never been in the playoffs. He definitely wants to win. He's at the part of his career where he wants to go on and be in the playoffs and World Series. That's the reason I came here."

If the Marlins sign Graves, they would be on the hook for roughly $215,000 for the rest of the season.

WHO INTERESTED THE SKINNY

Roger Clemens
Astros

Yankees?
Rangers?

Rocket Ranger?
Roger Clemens has expressed interest in joining a postseason contender -- the Texas Rangers, Newsday reports.
Clemens, who will earn $18 million this season, has a no-trade clause and would receive an additional $3 million if he's traded.

The Rangers have not had any discussions with the Astros regarding Clemens, according to the Fort Worth Star-Telegram.

WHO INTERESTED THE SKINNY

Rich Aurilia
Reds

Never asked to be traded
Rich Aurilia says rumors that surfaced Wednesday on local sports talk radio that he demanded a trade were entirely inaccurate, The Cincinnati Post reports.
"I didn't demand anything," Aurilia told the newspaper. "I voiced my opinion that I wasn't pleased with not playing every day, but that's not demanding a trade."

The Fantasy Baseball Focus

Welcome to The Show! Monday, ESPN fantasy games expert Tristan Cockcroft will drop by to take your questions and analyze all the latest news and results from a fantasy perspective.
Send your questions now and join Tristan in The Show on Monday at 10 a.m. ET!

Tristan H. Cockcroft: Good morning everyone! Who's ready to talk some baseball?

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Linh Raleigh, NC: How long should I hang on to Jason Schmidt. He says he is "changing his approach". That can't be good. I've already got Bedard, Harden and Lyon eating bench spots. Nobody is willing to give anything up for him.

Tristan H. Cockcroft: I'd hang onto him for awhile, Linh. Schmidt has missed a little time due to injury in recent seasons and gotten off to a slow start after returning, but overall has been just fine shortly thereafter. I think he's just still trying to work himself back to full health. Maybe Schmidt's final numbers might not be as strong as they were a year ago, but I think in a few more starts he'll be right back up there with the best National League pitchers. Hold tight with him.

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Jeff (KC, KS): I just traded Derek Lee for Jo. Santana. Fair deal?

Tristan H. Cockcroft: The best hitter in fantasy baseball to this point for the pitcher who was the best a year ago? That's a fine deal. I do like Lee to keep up a fair amount of value, but I think he'll still slow down slightly, while Santana could have another lights-out second half like he did a year ago. I'd take a chance like this.

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Nik: Grapevine, Tx: Morgan Ensberg Or Erik Hinske?

Tristan H. Cockcroft: I don't think it's really a contest anymore, not with Ensberg on a 35-homer pace and Hinske up to his old inconsistent ways for most of the season. Here's the thing about Ensberg: Though he's in a pretty thin lineup, remember that Minute Maid Park is still a pretty favorable place for right-handed power hitters, and he's hitting in the heart of the order due to the lack of depth, meaning more RBI chances. I see Ensberg reaching 30 homers and 90 RBI the way he's swinging the bat, numbers we simply can't expect from Hinske.

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John (Chicago, Illinois): Bartolo Colon or Kenny Rogers?

Tristan H. Cockcroft: The numbers say Rogers (8-2, 1.62 ERA), but let's not overlook the fact that Colon (7-3, 3.10) has been pretty solid in his own right. From today forward, I would take Colon. Rogers is still 40 years old, after all, not the stage of a pitcher's career where he suddenly becomes a Cy Young candidate, and also not a time where he's a lock to have the stamina to finish off this kind of run. He might fade miserably after the All-Star break, as he did a year ago, while Colon should stay around his current rate all season.

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Luke (Chicago):: Come on Tristan, Engel answers Football Keeper questions, I know its early but don't discriminate!

I've collected A-Rod, Tejada and Soriano as my top 3 keepers. However I'm left to choose two out of Dunn, Morneau, Mauer or Bonderman. PLEASE ADVISE!!

Tristan H. Cockcroft: Luke, I've got nothing against keeper questions. We just don't get too many this early in the season! I would most certainly keep Bonderman, who is getting really close to his top form and might even be Cy Young material as soon as next season. After him it gets a little trickier. Given those choices, I'd rather take the guy at the thinner position, which would be Mauer. While health could always be an issue for him, having a catcher who could contend for a batting title next season will give you a considerable advantage. I think Dunn and Morneau are just slightly more replaceable.

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Kent (Aurora ON): Who?s closing ? Weathers or Wagner? Kolb or Reitsma?

Tristan H. Cockcroft: If those decisions are boiling down to who to use this week, then Wagner and Reitsma are my guys, with the Brave the better choice as a fantasy starter for now. Wagner hasn't looked that great since Danny Graves was cut, but I have to believe the Reds will give him a few more chances to prove himself in the closer's role. Reitsma, meanwhile, has really pitched brilliantly all year with the exception of one 10-day stretch in which he struggled a bit. He's been far more effective than Kolb, so get him in there now while he's pitching well.

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Big Joe (Trenton, NJ): Would you start Doug Davis against the Yanks tonight? ALSO - would you start Contreras against the Rockies in Colorado?

Tristan H. Cockcroft: Difficult situations, and you know how I like to play the matchups with pitchers whenever possible. In Davis' case, I would definitely start him, Yankees or not. Remember that he has been downright dominant of late, while the Yanks seem to have hit the skids yet again. It's tough to bench him while he's hot. As for Contreras, while he has pitched well all year, this is one start in which I would avoid him. He has shown a tendency in his career to crumble if he gets off to a slow start, and the thin air of Colorado could bring out his worst.

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Champ (Philly): What do you expect from Ryan Doumit?

Tristan H. Cockcroft: It's all in the Pirates' hands. I expect a major-league team that wants to win as many ballgames as it can to get Doumit in the lineup enough for him to have won the starting catcher job by two weeks from now, but this is the Pirates, and a lot of the time they do some unpredictable things. Their staff has raved about Doumit's talent, and I will too, though. The guy can flat-out hit, and if he can get even 200 at-bats and stay up the remainder of the year, I think he could hit at least .275 with 10-15 homers. Those are pretty decent stats for a catcher-eligible player off the free-agent list, and remember, he has a lot more upside than that (think .300-20-60 as a full-timer from today forward in the best-case scenario).

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Joe (chicago): What do you think of Hayden Penn? Is he worth picking up for a spot start against the Pirates?

Tristan H. Cockcroft: I activated Penn in a couple of my AL-only leagues for this game, if only because I don't think much of the Pirates' offense -- Doumit aside -- and I think the rookie might have the advantage of facing a team unfamiliar with his stuff. Still, Penn's a considerable risk, and one who has hardly been efficient with his pitches so far. It's a big chance, but one I'd take if I'm thin on alternatives in an AL-only league.

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Jeff (Chicago): Is Mota ever going to get the closers role back or should I drop him off my team. Also what can I expect from Affeldt when he gets off the DL?

Tristan H. Cockcroft: If you can't afford to stash many players on your bench -- a lot of leagues don't offer many spots -- then I would not keep Mota. He doesn't look anywhere near being ready to reclaim his closer's role, and I won't be surprised if he falls prey to surgery at some point. There might still be something wrong with him. As for Affeldt, he's probably not going to help you as a middle reliever initially, but I still see him getting save chances at some point later in the year. These are the Royals, though, a team that won't generate many opportunities, so I wouldn't be expecting much more than 10 saves from Affeldt the rest of the way, if that.

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Abe (Boston): Hey Tristan - Who are some middle relievers I should pick up in anticipation of them getting the closer job due to their team's closer being traded, and when is the actual trade deadline?

Tristan H. Cockcroft: Abe, the trade deadline is July 31, and the best story I could tell you about closers and that date is that I was the unfortunate owner to have Scott Williamson and Mike Williams in 2003, the year they suddenly became setup men on Aug. 1. Ugh. Watch out for that this year with guys like Danys Baez, Jose Mesa, perhaps Ugueth Urbina and maybe even Bob Wickman and Eddie Guardado. The Devil Rays' Chad Orvella is a popular sleeper choice, and I'd also take a look at guys like Mike Gonzalez, Rafael Betancourt, David Riske, Julio Mateo and J.J. Putz as potential sleepers for saves after the deadline passes.

Skooby · #5 06-06-05, 07:51 PM

Steve (Pittsburgh): Two Pirate questions. Is Mackowiak worth a spot on my roster? Also do you think Oliver Perez has finally got his stuff in order? I want to trade for him.

Tristan H. Cockcroft: Mackowiak is a pretty underrated player right now, but he's hitting extremely well and helps in that he qualifies at multiple positions in many leagues. He's streaky though, and I expect he'll have a cold spell or two looking forward, so be prepared. As for Perez, he certainly looks a lot better now, though I'm still a bit worried that he might have some slight physical problems that could haunt him down the road. His value is pretty low right now, which helps in getting him at a fair rate on the trade market, so I'd take a shot on him if you get the chance. But don't be convinced he's back to his 2004 form for the remainder of the year. I think the time will come where you should shop him later in the season.

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John (Houston): Soriano (injured ?) , Ibanez (DH) or Craig Counsell (7 games) this week ? I need to play one at Utility.

Tristan H. Cockcroft: The latest on Soriano is that his hamstring injury isn't considered serious, but even he admits that it's the kind of thing that might take two or three days to fully heal. It sounds like he might only be a pinch hitter for the first part of the week, so be prepared for the risk. This is one time where I'd actually roll the dice on Counsell, because he's the most assured of the bunch at playing every day this week. I think three games might be the best you get out of Soriano, if that, while Ibanez doesn't have the DH spot to fall back on this week in NL parks.

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RJ (Upstate NY): Is Chase Utley playing more against lefties now - if so, is he worth an everyday start?

Tristan H. Cockcroft: Well, RJ, Sunday was his first start of the season against a lefty, so that's not enough to say he's playing more against them yet. Still, it's a promising sign, and perhaps one to indicate that a trade is in the works that might clear him to play every day during the season's second half. Even if Utley doesn't get everyday at-bats, though, I still think he's worth an everyday start for your team. He tears up right-handers enough to make an impact as it is, and all the starts against lefties will do is give him a chance at more homers, RBI and runs, while potentially hurting your batting average.

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Matt (Cincy): Tristan! Why is everyone so obsessed with closers?? In most leagues it will help you in one category (saves obviously) and may have a very mild impact on ERA/K/Whip. It seems everyone spends way too much time on the closer situations.

Tristan H. Cockcroft: Matt, two things regarding closers: Their jobs change an awful lot during the season, and this year, it seems like the turnover rate in closer roles is more than it has ever been before. Change is an important thing to track in order to be a successful fantasy owner.

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Travis (Denver): How much playing time do you see Dellucci getting over the next week?

Tristan H. Cockcroft: I think he'll probably be employed as part of an outfield rotation for the week as his Rangers head to National League parks, with him starting ahead of either Kevin Mench or Richard Hidalgo in the corner outfield spots. Keep in mind the Rangers are currently slated to face just one left-hander out of six games, so Dellucci could get three or four starts, with the same total for either Mench or Hidalgo.

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hal(nyc): will the big hurt play this week in NL parks?

Tristan H. Cockcroft: I can't see how he'll be anything more than a pinch hitter, because even he admits he's not quite healthy enough to play in the field. I'd keep Thomas on my bench for the week, because it's going to be tough for him to make an impact with only an at-bat per game.

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Brian (NYC): HELP! Barmes or Crosby?

Tristan H. Cockcroft: That's a tailor-made matchups situation. Barmes when the Rockies are at home, as they are this week, Crosby when the Rockies are on the road. I think slightly more of Crosby as the overall player from today forward, though.

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Rick (Minneapolis): Posada or Varitek? Which would you rather have?

Tristan H. Cockcroft: The way Varitek has been swinging the bat this year, I'd rather have him. Posada just doesn't look quite right at the plate, and his struggles have gotten to the point where he's trying different hitting approaches every few games. That suggests to me either he's declining offensively, or he's going to need a fair amount of time to get close to his old form.

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Ryan (Atl): Would you take Miguel Cabrera, Soriano, or Teixeira on your team first???

Tristan H. Cockcroft: I'd take Teixeira, I just think he has an overwhelming amount of power compared to Soriano and Cabrera. All three are great players, though. Cabrera's probably the best in pure batting average.

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Eric (Arlington, VA): Is Dan Johnson worth a pickup?

Tristan H. Cockcroft: Absolutely. I love his approach to hitting, and I think he's smart enough to bat .270, hit a fair share of homers (15?) and drive in perhaps up to 60 runs. That said, this is not a week where I'd start him. With the Athletics in National League parks, either he or Scott Hatteberg has to take a seat for the next six games.

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John (Long Beach): Who is the closer in Detroit this week? Urbina or Percival?

Tristan H. Cockcroft: It's still Urbina, as the Tigers want to see how Percival fares in non-save situations for a few games before considering putting him back into the closer's role. Percival did look good in his first game back, though, so I anticipate he'd be ready to return to the role before long.

Tristan H. Cockcroft: Well, that's all for today. Thanks for all of your questions, and we'll be back again tomorrow to chat more baseball with you!